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SAFETY OF FLIGHTS DEPENDS NOT ONLY ON TERRESTRIAL WEATHER

It is well-known that safety of flights in many respects depends on whims of atmospheric weather. It is not the unique external factor which can influence on safety. Now in the world the new direction in the physics of near space - «space weather» impetuously develops. The condition of a near space is meant under this term in area interesting us (on the Sun, in a solar wind, in magnetic sphere, an ionosphere or the top atmosphere of the Earth) at present or for the certain time interval. Space weather is studied from the point of view of its possible adverse influences on ability to live of the person when conditions in a near space can affect on work and reliability of onboard and ground technological systems and represent threat for a human life or health. The Sun is the main and practically unique source of changes of space weather.

All life is connected with the Sun on the Earth, therefore it was idolized since ancient times. Electromagnetic radiation mainly visible light with addition of infra-red and a radio emission which brings the basic part of energy (about 1,2 kW/m2 in an orbit of the Earth) comes to us from the Sun. The size of this energy varies in time very little, therefore it has received the name of a solar constant. Astrophysics consider the Sun as a constant star in contrast to great number of variable stars. At the same time the Sun is the very young star living the active «star» life. Activity of the Sun varies in a well-known 11-years cycle in which the maximal size of activity reaches each 11 years. But how the Sun which is being from the Earth on distance approximately of 150 million of kilometers can influence the Earth? Within several decades there was dominating a representation that solar flashes are the reason of all geoeffective (i.e. influencing to the Earth) events. About them just also speak more often on TV. Bright pictures are the photos of the Sun received on space observatory SOHO (the joint project of the European and American space agencies). However since 90th years of XX centuries it became clear that huge emissions of substance from a corona of the Sun, so-called corona emissions of mass which look as the clots of corona substances which have come off the Sun representing closed loops of a magnetic field, render appreciable influence on terrestrial magnetic sphere and other terrestrial processes. Their weight can reach 10 million tons, which is comparable with weight of an asteroid. Energy can reach 1000 erg, that comparable with total energy of hundred typhoons happening on the Earth. Speed of movement of such emission can reach 2000 km/s. Time of distribution of this disturbance up to the Earth depends on speed. Corona emissions of mass have the sizes much more exceeding diameter of an optical disk of the Sun even on rather small distance from the Sun.

Safety of air flights essentially depends on conditions of an atmosphere, ionosphere and a circumterraneous space. These conditions are defined by the whole complex of factors which are defined by activity of the Sun and a condition of the interplanetary environment. Now the major factors negatively influencing on work of onboard electronics, and also on state of health of the people who are being onboard air liners were determined. Space radiation is one of the major factors negatively influencing on functioning of onboard electronics. These are streams of the charged particles with high energy and ionizing electromagnetic radiation capable to get through a cover of flying devices. The second factor is perturbation a magnetic field of the Earth influencing on streams of radiation in circumterraneous space.

Following problem situations there can be during arrival to the Earth of large indignations of solar plasma:

• increase of a doze of radiation received by passengers and crews of high-altitude air liners;

• degradation of constructional materials under influence of raised radiation;

• failures in work of the electronic systems caused by influence of space particles of high energy (single failures);

• infringement of a radio communication with air liners;

• deterioration of state of health of people during magnetic sphere indignations.

Each of these problem situations can lead to the extremely negative and at times irreversible consequences. If critical conditions at which the whole complex from specified above problems starts to work are created, consequences of such situation can appear catastrophic. It is a supernumerary situation onboard an air liner capable to lead to an air crash.

Space radiation are understood as streams of an ionizing radiation: galactic space beams, particles of radiating belts of the Earth, solar space beams and ionizing electromagnetic radiation of the Sun. Maxima of particles of atmospheric downpours (secondary particles from hit of galactic space beams in an atmosphere) are observed at heights of 10-20 km, i.e. there where pass air lines of modern air liners. Particles of space radiation cause functional failures in work of electronics (SEE - Single Events Effects - effects of single failures). This is allocation of energy in separate areas of microcircuits that leads to failures in their work. Action of solar space beams (particles of high energy, generated during solar proton events) on work of electronic devices and health of the person is especially dangerous. Dose loadings on crews of air liners and probability of failures in work of electronics can increase on orders during generation of solar space beams (solar proton events).

During powerful solar flashes the streams of ionizing electromagnetic radiation increase on some orders. It leads to a strong warming and ionization of the top atmosphere that leads to essential change of conditions of passage of radio signals through an ionosphere and their reflection from it. The radio communication is broken. Modern air liners widely use a satellite radio communication for navigation and communications which can be interrupted during the indignant condition of a circumterraneous space. For example, during the indignant condition of a circumterraneous space on January, 10-11, 1997 in Canada it was necessary to cancel almost for day flights of passenger planes because of malfunctions with a radio communication.

During geomagnetic indignations the quantity of failures in work of the electronic equipment sharply increases. It is considered that magnetic storms can influence both working capacity and the general state of health of people. According to E.K. Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics data during strong magnetic storms there were 16 aviation emergencies for 2000: on June, 26, Voronezh (Su-24М), on August, 12, Congo (An-26B), on September, 16, Kiev, (Jak-52). During strong geomagnetic indignations there can be the infringement of a radio communication caused by indignation of an ionosphere during the main phase of a magnetic storm.

If we shall measure a doze of radiation from a surface of the Earth we shall see increase in quantity of radiation: dozes will increase approximately twice everyone of 2,2 km. In the beginning, up to heights in 20-30 km, it basically is connected with particles of wide atmospheric downpours if is not present emptying of relativistic electrons from radiating belts and solar space beams from solar flashes. At heights of orbital stations (~400 km) the dozes of radiation exceed the sizes observed on a surface of the Earth ~200 times! It is basically due to particles of radiating belts. It is known that some lines of intercontinental planes pass near to northern polar area. This area is least protected from intrusion of vigorous particles and consequently during solar flashes danger of a radiating irradiation of crew and passengers increases. Solar flashes increase dozes of radiation at heights of flights of planes in 20-30 times. Recently crews of some airlines are informed on the beginning of approach of intrusion of solar particles. One of the recent powerful solar eruptions, happened in November, 2003, has forced crew of «Delta» of flight of Chicago – Hong Kong to curtail from a way and fly to destination more low-latitude route. As a result it has been burnt a lot of superfluous hot. This circumstance should be considered.

A doze of radiation grows with increase in height. At height of MKS orbital station they exceed typical dozes on a surface of the Earth in ~200 times. They are safe at heights of flights of planes, but until there will be a powerful solar flash.

With a view of a safety of air flights the development of methods of the prevention of critical situations is necessary. For this purpose maintenance of diagnostics and the forecast of a condition of a circumterraneous space are necessary.

Sharp necessity of research and forecasting of the dangerous geophysical phenomena of a space origin understand all over the world. In Kazakhstan the works of this direction are conducted at Department «Institute of Ionosphere». The Center of diagnostics and forecast of geophysical conditions where techniques of forecasting of dangerous radiating conditions in a circumterraneous space and techniques of forecast of arrival of the large interplanetary indignations leading to changes of electromagnetic conditions and magnetic storms are developed functions since July, 2006 at Department. The center works in a continuous mode and can give the information on a condition of a circumterraneous space and its forecast with various earliness to all interested organizations of a space direction.

It should be noted that breakdown susceptibility of air flights can be caused by a lot of the reasons which have been not connected with negative influence of factors of a space. However taking into account of these factors can essentially decrease probability of occurrence of an emergency or warn it.

The works concerning researches of condition of a circumterraneous space and an opportunity of its forecasting were conducted in wide cooperation with the Russian and foreign scientists within some international grants with the Air Forces of USA (special contract (SPC--98-4035) with Air Force Research Laboratory EOARD/AFMC F617089-98-WE064), European grants INTAS-00-0810 and INTAS--2000-752, and now within the State program of the Republic of Kazakhstan «Applied scientific researches in the field of space activity» and European 7 frame programs FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES--2007-1 (Contract N 213007).